Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period.

Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Polar bears on land are thought to minimize activity to conserve energy. Here, we measure the daily energy expenditure (DEE), diet, behavior, movement, and body composition changes of 20 different polar bears on land over 19-23 days from August to September (2019-2022) in Manitoba, Canada. Polar bears on land exhibited a 5.2-fold range in DEE and 19-fold range in activity, from hibernation-like DEEs to levels approaching active bears on the sea ice, including three individuals that made energetically demanding swims totaling 54-175 km. Bears consumed berries, vegetation, birds, bones, antlers, seal, and beluga. Beyond compensating for elevated DEE, there was little benefit from terrestrial foraging toward prolonging the predicted time to starvation, as 19 of 20 bears lost mass (0.4-1.7 kg•day-1). Although polar bears on land exhibit remarkable behavioral plasticity, our findings reinforce the risk of starvation, particularly in subadults, with forecasted increases in the onshore period.

An on-ice aerial survey of the Kane Basin polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.

There is an imminent need to collect information on distribution and abundance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to understand how they are affected by the ongoing decrease in Arctic sea ice. The Kane Basin (KB) subpopulation is a group of high-latitude polar bears that ranges between High Arctic Canada and NW Greenland around and north of the North Water polynya (NOW). We conducted a line transect distance sampling aerial survey of KB polar bears during 28 April-12 May 2014. A total of 4160 linear kilometers were flown in a helicopter over fast ice in the fjords and over offshore pack ice between 76° 50' and 80° N'. Using a mark-recapture distance sampling protocol, the estimated abundance was 190 bears (95% lognormal CI: 87-411; CV 39%). This estimate is likely negatively biased to an unknown degree because the offshore sectors of the NOW with much open water were not surveyed because of logistical and safety reasons. Our study demonstrated that aerial surveys may be a feasible method for obtaining abundance estimates for small subpopulations of polar bears.

Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.

Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km2 (SE 23,000) (p < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under climate change.

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic.

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1-3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.

Extensive sampling of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Northwest Passage (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) reveals population differentiation across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

As global warming accelerates the melting of Arctic sea ice, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) must adapt to a rapidly changing landscape. This process will necessarily alter the species distribution together with population dynamics and structure. Detailed knowledge of these changes is crucial to delineating conservation priorities. Here, we sampled 361 polar bears from across the center of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago spanning the Gulf of Boothia (GB) and M'Clintock Channel (MC). We use DNA microsatellites and mitochondrial control region sequences to quantify genetic differentiation, estimate gene flow, and infer population history. Two populations, roughly coincident with GB and MC, are significantly differentiated at both nuclear (F ST = 0.01) and mitochondrial (ΦST = 0.47; F ST = 0.29) loci, allowing Bayesian clustering analyses to assign individuals to either group. Our data imply that the causes of the mitochondrial and nuclear genetic patterns differ. Analysis of mtDNA reveals the matrilineal structure dates at least to the Holocene, and is common to individuals throughout the species' range. These mtDNA differences probably reflect both genetic drift and historical colonization dynamics. In contrast, the differentiation inferred from microsatellites is only on the scale of hundreds of years, possibly reflecting contemporary impediments to gene flow. Taken together, our data suggest that gene flow is insufficient to homogenize the GB and MC populations and support the designation of GB and MC as separate polar bear conservation units. Our study also provide a striking example of how nuclear DNA and mtDNA capture different aspects of a species demographic history.